Pick a sport to see today's props.
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Select a sport to see trends.

How It Works

Real data. Honest math. You decide.

The Short Version

PropDesk pulls real stats and real betting lines, runs them through a model built on actual game data, and shows you where the numbers disagree with the market. No guessing. No gut calls. No hype.

When we show you a confidence percentage, that number came from a player's real game log measured against the actual line being offered today — not a projection, not an algorithm trained on vibes.

Where Our Data Comes From

Every number you see is sourced from live, real-world data. Nothing is estimated.

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Live betting lines from major US sportsbooks
Pulled fresh each time you load a market. We compare across books to find where the market disagrees with itself — that disagreement is often where the value is.
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Official league data feeds
Player game logs, team records, scoring margins, and standings come from official MLB, NHL, and ESPN data sources — the same feeds the leagues use publicly.
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MLB starting pitcher data
ERA, WHIP, and recent form for today's confirmed starters, pulled directly from league records. Pitcher matchup is one of the biggest variables in baseball and we treat it that way.
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Live weather at outdoor stadiums
Real-time temperature and wind for outdoor MLB and NFL games. Shown when it's relevant — ignored when it's not.
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Season series history
Head-to-head results between teams this season, sourced directly from league records — not a third-party summary.
Every number you see is sourced from official game records and live market data — not projections, estimates, or third-party summaries.
How We Score Player Props

When you pull up a prop market, PropDesk fetches the player's real game log and measures it against the line the books have set — not against a projected season total.

Recent performance carries more weight than season totals. A player's role, minutes, and form change over a season. What they've done in the last 5 games tells a more honest story than what they did in October.
We require real data before we'll rate anything. Thin samples get flagged or excluded automatically. If we don't have enough games to be confident, we say so — or we say nothing at all.
The line matters as much as the average. A player averaging 22 points doesn't make the Over on a 24.5 line a good bet. We measure actual hit rate at the specific line being offered today.
We weight recent games more than season totals. The model blends L5 (60%), L10 (25%), and full-season (15%) hit rates so that recent form dominates without completely ignoring longer-term patterns.
For MLB, the model also weights pitcher quality and batter profile. Season batting average, opposing pitcher ERA/WHIP, and lineup position all factor in — giving a true .300 hitter facing a 5.40 ERA starter more credit than a .240 hitter at the same line.
Confidence Tiers
🔒 LOCK
85%+ confidence. The player has hit this line in the overwhelming majority of recent games. L5, L10, and season hit rates all align.
✅ GOOD
70–84% confidence. Strong agreement across recent form and trend data. The primary target range for most plays.
⚡ POTENTIAL
55–69% confidence. A clear lean at the posted line. Reasonable as a parlay leg — edge is present but not dominant.
⚠️ RISKY
Below 55% confidence. Limited edge or conflicting data. Use as supporting context only — not recommended as a standalone bet.
How We Grade Moneylines

We build a power rating for every team from their actual season data, then compare it to what the betting market is implying. When those two numbers disagree meaningfully, that's the edge.

Power ratings come from real season performance — win percentage, scoring margin, and recent form. All three matter. A team with a winning record that's been consistently outscored is rated very differently than one that's earned it.
Home advantage is factored in per sport. The edge of playing at home is real, measurable, and different for baseball, basketball, hockey, and football. We treat each sport separately.
In MLB, the starting pitcher is the single biggest variable. A great starter against a weak lineup can swing a game significantly. We pull confirmed starter data daily and weight it accordingly — it's never an afterthought.
In NBA, back-to-back fatigue is a real, measurable edge. Teams playing the second night of a back-to-back underperform at a rate the market doesn't always fully price in. We flag it every time.
We never show a strong edge on one factor alone. LOCK and GOOD ratings on a moneyline require multiple independent signals pointing the same direction. One decent stat isn't enough to call the market wrong.
How We Find Trends

Every trend on PropDesk is calculated from real completed games — not assumptions, not projections, not pattern-matching on tiny samples.

Player streaks — hit rates over a player's last 5, 10, or 15 games at their actual prop line. We only surface a streak when the hit rate is genuinely meaningful, not a coin flip with a round number attached.
Situational patterns (MLB) — real splits based on pitcher handedness, batting order position, home/away, rest days, and opponent quality. Every subset requires a minimum number of real qualifying games before we'll call it a system.
Market mispricing — when the book line sits significantly below a player's season output, or well above their recent form, we flag the gap. These are objective mismatches between the number and the data, not opinions.
Sharp money signals — when multiple sportsbooks move a line in the same direction since opening, it often reflects informed action. We track cross-book movement in real time and surface it when the signal is clear.
We'd rather show you three real trends than ten weak ones. Small samples are filtered out automatically — even if that means a lighter board on a given day.
Best Plays

When you select a game, PropDesk automatically scans every available prop market in the background. Any prop with 75%+ confidence (GOOD or LOCK) surfaces automatically in the Best Plays section — no market browsing required. Results update in real time as each market completes.

Best Plays is a full-game sweep, not a filtered view of the market you're looking at. It runs across every market simultaneously so you don't miss a high-confidence play hidden in a market you haven't clicked yet.
Adjustable Lines

Every prop shows a stepper control letting you shift the threshold line — for example, from 1+ Hits to 2+ Hits. PropDesk recalculates confidence instantly using the same historical game-log data, so you can see how confidence changes at different thresholds before deciding whether the edge is worth it at a tighter or looser line.

Play History

The Play History tab automatically logs every prop with 70%+ confidence that surfaces during your session. Track your hit rate over time, review model calibration broken down by confidence tier, and identify which markets and players PropDesk has performed best on. For MLB, past results resolve automatically by pulling the official box score — no manual input needed.

What We Don't Do
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We don't predict outcomes with certainty. Sports are unpredictable. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something. PropDesk shows you where the numbers point — you decide what to do with it.
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We don't force picks. Thin data, low sample sizes, and weak signals get filtered out automatically — even when that means fewer plays on a given day. We'd rather show you nothing than show you noise dressed up as confidence.
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We don't hide bad results. Every pick we surface is trackable. The record is what it is, unedited.
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We don't cherry-pick data. The model runs on the same rules for every player, every game, every sport. No manual overrides. No convenient omissions when the numbers aren't pretty.
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We don't sell picks. Everything is computed in your browser from live data. No subscription tier unlocks better picks. No VIP channel. No upsell.
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PropDesk isn't about hot takes or hunches. It's stats, computed honestly, and shown to you straight. You make the call.

Disclaimer

Please read before using PropDesk.

Not Financial Advice

PropDesk is an analytical tool for entertainment and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, investment, or betting advice. All scores and recommendations are computed estimates of relative value, not predictions of results.

No Guarantee

Past performance and value scores do not guarantee future outcomes. Sports betting carries real risk of financial loss. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Age Requirement

You must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction (typically 21+ in the US, 18+ elsewhere) to wager. Do not use this tool to facilitate underage gambling.

Responsible Gambling

If gambling stops being fun, get help. National Problem Gambling Helpline: call or text 1-800-522-4700. Visit ncpgambling.org or gamblersanonymous.org.

Data Sources

Odds data is provided by The Odds API. Player statistics come from the MLB Stats API and ESPN public endpoints. PropDesk is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any sportsbook, league, or data provider. Data may be delayed or inaccurate.

No Liability

PropDesk and its authors accept no liability for any losses, damages, or decisions made based on information from this tool. Use entirely at your own risk.

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